Deadline: 17-Feb-22
The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) has announced the proposals for the Economy-wide Scenario Planning: Supply-Side and Demand-Side Drivers of Economic Growth, Employment and Poverty Reduction in the Eastern Cape.
Scope
- The impact of improved economic infrastructure, investment, and levels of agency on economic growth, poverty and the income distribution in the Eastern Cape.
- The impact of fiscal consolidation risks in relation to economic growth, with specific focus on
- the Fiscal Debt/GDP ratio;
- Declining provincial allocations from the National fiscus;
- EC losing it national equitable share due to demographic-migration patterns;
- the Health & Education budgets. Simulations could include basic income grant and alternatives to the current fiscal policy, and their impacts more broadly.
- Finding the key economic sectors that the EC should concentrate on to stimulate economic growth and employment.
- Disaggregating each component of final demand (Households, Government, Investment) and assessing how these final demand sub-components contribute to the achievement of macro-economic objectives of the EC.
- CGE simulations extended to forecast the EC APEX indicators of the Provincial Development Plan (PDP) to 2040, focussing on GDP, Unemployment, poverty, inequality, HDI, and investment.
Objectives
- The aim of this project is to deepen and expand the scenarios that were modelled in the Scenario Planning Project done for the Eastern Cape, by the IFR and ECSECC.
- The scenarios in the previous project focused mainly on growth and industry production. This project seeks
- to provide additional simulations not included in the previous one,
- to determine the impact of fiscal expansion on growth, poverty, and income distribution in the province.
- The four-scenario planning (Destitute; Just a number; Do It Yourself; and The Flourishers) will be extended to forecast the Eastern Cape APEX indicators of the Provincial Development Plan (PDP) to 2040, focussing on GDP, unemployment, poverty, inequality, HDI, and investment.
Deliverables
- A forecast until 2040 of the impact on all the macroeconomic and industry level variables, including sectoral growth and employment, with a detailed narrative explaining the results and economic trends.
- A forecast until 2040 of the impact of the four scenarios on poverty and income distribution in the EC.
- A forecast until 2040 of the impact of the four scenarios on the EC fiscus and EC APEX indicators.
- PowerPoint presentation and webinar presentation to the project steering committee, Office of the Premier, ECSECC, DEDEAT and the Provincial Treasury.
Qualifications
- A master’s degree in economics (or applied econometrics). Preference will be given to an applicant with a PhD in economics
- Have a minimum of 5 articles published in accredited journals, using CGE model for empirical evidence.
- A minimum of 5 years’ experience in research.
- Understanding of both the United Nation’s 2008 System of National Accounts, and the South African Reserve Bank’s Integrated Economic Accounts
- Excellent writing and analytical skills, capacity to interact with government officials, and great team spirit
- economists/econometricians required to conduct research related to the Eastern Cape Province under the supervision of the modeler.
- Qualification:
- A Master’s degree in economics (or applied econometric), public management, development economics, business administration or related fields.
- Have a minimum of 2 articles published in accredited journals using CGE model for empirical evidence.
- A minimum of 2 years’ experience in conducting research.
- Excellent writing and analytical skills, capacity to interact with government officials, and great team spirit
For more information, visit https://procurement-notices.undp.org/view_notice.cfm?notice_id=87872