CFAs: Integrated Scenarios and Predictive Models for a Nature-Positive Transition

Deadline: 17-Sep-2026

The European Commission is inviting large-scale research and innovation projects to develop integrated scenarios and predictive ecosystem models that support Europe’s transition to a nature-positive society. With a total budget of €10 million and approximately €5 million available per project, the call focuses on understanding how ecosystems respond to environmental, social, economic, and policy changes while supporting evidence-based decision-making aligned with European and global biodiversity goals.

Funding Overview

• Funding Organization: European Commission under Horizon Europe
• Total Funding Available: €10,000,000
• Indicative Funding per Project: Approximately €5,000,000
• Project Type: Research and Innovation Actions (RIA)
• Geographic Focus: Europe
• Participation: International collaboration permitted under Horizon Europe eligibility rules

Program Objective

The initiative aims to strengthen scientific knowledge about how ecosystems respond to multiple future scenarios influenced by climate change, pollution, land-use change, economic development, and policy interventions.

The program seeks to support the development of advanced predictive tools that can help governments, businesses, researchers, and communities make informed decisions that promote biodiversity conservation, ecosystem resilience, and sustainable development.

The call contributes directly to:

• European Green Deal
• EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030
• EU Nature Restoration Regulation
• Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework
• United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
• Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES)
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Key Focus Areas

Projects should address one or more of the following priorities:

• Development of integrated scenario frameworks exploring multiple future pathways for ecosystems.
• Creation of predictive ecosystem models covering terrestrial, freshwater, and marine environments.
• Analysis of ecosystem responses to climate change, pollution, socio-economic transformation, and policy actions.
• Interdisciplinary collaboration between environmental sciences, economics, social sciences, and humanities.
• Model intercomparison frameworks that improve transparency, consistency, and reliability.
• Development of tools that support evidence-based policymaking and sustainability planning.

What Projects Are Expected to Deliver

Successful projects should develop components of a European integrated prediction and scenario framework capable of simulating ecosystem responses under different future conditions.

Expected outcomes include:

• Predictive models linking biodiversity, ecosystem functions, and human activities.
• Analysis of resilience, vulnerability, and ecological tipping points.
• Assessment of interactions between ecosystems and sectors such as agriculture, fisheries, energy, and land management.
• Evaluation of feedback loops between environmental and socio-economic systems.
• Improved forecasting of biodiversity and ecosystem service changes.
• Enhanced decision-support tools for policymakers and stakeholders.

Scientific and Technical Requirements

Applicants are expected to:

• Use long-term monitoring data related to biodiversity, climate, land use, and socio-economic trends.
• Quantify and communicate uncertainty within model projections.
• Integrate multiple spatial and temporal scales.
• Assess ecosystem dynamics across different environmental conditions.
• Utilize remote sensing technologies where appropriate.
• Support model scalability and comparability across regions.

Projects should also address knowledge gaps identified in international biodiversity assessments and align with global modelling initiatives.

Regional Testing Requirements

A mandatory requirement of the call is the testing and validation of modelling approaches across at least two European biogeographic regions.

This requirement ensures:

• Applicability across diverse ecosystem types.
• Greater scientific robustness.
• Improved transferability of results.
• Better understanding of regional ecological differences.

Nature Futures Framework Integration

Applicants should assess and, where appropriate, adapt the IPBES Nature Futures Framework for European applications.

The Nature Futures Framework is a scenario-building approach that explores alternative futures where human societies and nature coexist sustainably. Integrating this framework can help improve biodiversity forecasting and long-term planning.

Stakeholder Engagement Requirements

The European Commission strongly encourages co-creation and stakeholder participation throughout project implementation.

Stakeholders may include:

• Public authorities
• Policymakers
• Environmental agencies
• Agricultural organizations
• Fisheries sector representatives
• Private sector companies
• Civil society organizations
• Indigenous and local communities
• Research institutions

Projects should involve stakeholders in scenario development, testing, and validation processes.

Equity and Justice Considerations

Proposals must explicitly address equity and social justice dimensions.

Applicants should evaluate how future scenarios affect:

• Biodiversity
• Climate resilience
• Food systems
• Water resources
• Public health
• Energy systems
• Economic development
• Social wellbeing

Projects should consider distributional impacts across different regions, sectors, and population groups.

Communication and Public Engagement

The Commission encourages applicants to develop accessible communication tools that make complex scientific findings easier to understand.

Examples include:

• Interactive simulation platforms
• Digital dashboards
• Visualization tools
• Policy support systems
• Public engagement resources

These tools should support wider adoption of project results and improve public understanding of ecosystem futures.

Collaboration and Synergies

Successful projects are expected to collaborate with:

• European Commission Knowledge Centre for Biodiversity (KCBD)
• European Commission Science Service
• Existing EU-funded biodiversity initiatives
• European Space Agency (ESA) Earth System Science activities
• ESA FutureEO Programme projects

Adequate resources should be allocated for coordination and knowledge exchange activities.

Who Is Eligible?

Eligibility is open to:

• Universities and higher education institutions
• Research organizations
• Non-profit organizations
• Public authorities
• Private companies
• International organizations
• Legal entities established in EU Member States
• Legal entities established in Horizon Europe-associated countries
• Eligible organizations from non-associated third countries

All applicants must comply with Horizon Europe participation requirements.

How to Apply

Step 1: Confirm Eligibility

Review Horizon Europe participation rules and verify organizational eligibility.

Step 2: Register Your Organization

Register in the Horizon Europe Participant Register if your organization is not already registered.

Step 3: Obtain a PIC Number

Secure a Participant Identification Code (PIC), which is required before grant agreement preparation.

Step 4: Build a Consortium

Develop an interdisciplinary consortium with expertise in:

• Ecology
• Biodiversity science
• Climate science
• Economics
• Social sciences
• Data science
• Remote sensing
• Policy analysis

Step 5: Design the Research Framework

Develop an integrated modelling and scenario-building methodology aligned with call objectives.

Step 6: Prepare the Proposal

Clearly demonstrate:

• Scientific excellence
• Innovation potential
• Policy relevance
• Stakeholder engagement strategy
• Impact pathways
• Collaboration plans

Step 7: Submit Through Horizon Europe

Complete and submit the application through the official Horizon Europe funding portal before the deadline specified in the call documentation.

Common Mistakes to Avoid

• Failing to include at least two European biogeographic regions.
• Weak integration of socio-economic and ecological dimensions.
• Insufficient stakeholder engagement plans.
• Limited consideration of uncertainty analysis.
• Lack of alignment with international biodiversity assessment frameworks.
• Poor integration of policy relevance and decision-support outcomes.
• Inadequate plans for collaboration with EU and ESA initiatives.
• Neglecting equity and justice considerations.

Why This Funding Matters

This funding opportunity supports the next generation of biodiversity forecasting and ecosystem modelling tools needed to address Europe’s environmental challenges.

By combining ecological science, socio-economic analysis, and stakeholder engagement, the initiative will help create more resilient ecosystems, stronger policy frameworks, and better pathways toward sustainable development.

The resulting knowledge can improve biodiversity conservation, climate adaptation, food security, water management, and economic resilience across Europe.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

What is the total budget available under this call?

The European Commission has allocated €10 million for this funding opportunity, with approximately €5 million available per selected project.

What types of projects are being funded?

Large-scale research and innovation projects focused on integrated scenarios, ecosystem forecasting, biodiversity modelling, and nature-positive policy development.

Are international organizations eligible to apply?

Yes. International organizations and entities from eligible non-associated third countries may participate, subject to Horizon Europe rules.

Is stakeholder engagement required?

Yes. Stakeholder involvement and co-creation are strongly encouraged and form an important component of project design.

Must projects use remote sensing data?

Remote sensing is not mandatory but is strongly encouraged to improve scalability and model comparison across regions.

How many regions must be included in the research?

Projects must test and validate modelling approaches across at least two European biogeographic regions.

What policy frameworks should proposals align with?

Proposals should support objectives related to the European Green Deal, EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030, Nature Restoration Regulation, IPBES, IPCC, the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, and the Sustainable Development Goals.

Conclusion

The European Commission’s Nature-Positive Society funding call represents a major investment in biodiversity forecasting, ecosystem modelling, and sustainability science. By supporting interdisciplinary research, stakeholder-driven scenario development, and advanced predictive tools, the initiative aims to strengthen Europe’s capacity to design evidence-based policies that protect biodiversity, enhance ecosystem resilience, and advance long-term sustainable development.

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For more information, visit EC.